长江上游洪涝暴雨环流形势中期演变趋势分析     

郁淑华  骆红  芮良生 《成都信息工程学院学报》1990,(1)

本文通过对1980年以来长江上游10次洪涝过程的500hpa环流形势分析,并用车比雪夫多项式对500hpa高度场进行展开,研究了各类洪涝过程的中期演变特征,发现代表不同洪涝过程环流形势变化的不同的车氏系数值都有明显的特征变化,结合欧洲中心中期数值预告96小时500hpa高度场的车氏系数分析,可为洪涝暴雨的中期预报提供一种新的思路。  相似文献   

Consideration of time-correlated errors in a Kalman filter applicable to GNSS   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. G. Petovello  K. O’Keefe  G. Lachapelle  M. E. Cannon 《Journal of Geodesy》2009,83(1):51-56

An algorithm for considering time-correlated errors in a Kalman filter is presented. The algorithm differs from previous implementations in that it does not suffer from numerical problems; does not contain inherent time latency or require reinterpretation of Kalman filter parameters, and gives full consideration to additive white noise that is often still present but ignored in previous implementations. Simulation results indicate that the application of the new algorithm yields more realistic and therefore useful state and covariance information than the standard implementation. Results from a field test of the algorithm applied to the problem of kinematic differential GPS demonstrate that the algorithm provides slightly pessimistic covariance estimates whereas the standard Kalman filter provides optimistic covariance estimates.  相似文献   

Evolution of Electric Currents Associated with Two M-Class Flares     

Baolin Tan  Haisheng Ji  Guangli Huang  Tuanhui Zhou  Qiwu Song  Yu Huang 《Solar physics》2006,239(1-2):137-148

Using one-minute cadence vector magnetograms from Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO), we analyze the temporal behavior of derived longitudinal electric currents associated with two flares on July 26, 2002. One of the events is an M1.0 flare which occurred in active region NOAA 10044, while the other is an M8.7 flare in the adjacent region 10039. Rapid changes of magnetic fields in the form of flux emergence are found to be associated with both of these events. However, the temporal behavior of electric currents are very different. For the M1.0 flare, the longitudinal electric current density drops rapidly near the flaring neutral line; while for the M8.7 flare, the current density rapidly increases, confirming the picture of the current-carrying flux emergence. We offer a possible explanation for such a difference: magnetic reconnection at different heights for the two events, near the photosphere for the M1.0 flare, and higher up for the M8.7 flare.  相似文献   

Cave ice of Lake Baikal as an indicator of climatic changes     

E. V. Trofimova 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2006,410(1):1087-1090

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Thick and thin models of the evolution of carbon dioxide on Mars     

Curtis V. Manning  Christopher P. McKay 《Icarus》2006,180(1):38-59

We present results from a new simulation code that accounts for the evolution of the reservoirs of carbon dioxide on Mars, from its early years to the present. We establish a baseline model parameter set that produces results compatible with the present (i.e., Patm?6.5 mbar with permanent CO₂ ice cap) for a wide range of initial inventories. We find that the initial inventory of CO₂ broadly determines the evolutionary course of the reservoirs of CO₂. The reservoirs include the atmosphere, ice cap, adsorbed CO₂ in the regolith, and carbonate rocks. We track the evolution of the free inventory: the atmosphere, ice cap and regolith. Simulations begin at 4.53 Gyr before present with a rapid loss of free inventory to space in the early Noachian. Models that assume a relatively small initial inventory (?5 bar) have pronounced minima in the free inventory of CO₂ toward the end of the Noachian. Under baseline parameters, initial inventories below ∼4.5 bar result in a catastrophic loss of the free inventory to space. The current free inventory would be then determined by the balance between outgassing, sputtering losses and chemical weathering following the end of the late bombardment. We call these “thin” models. They generically predict small current free inventories in line with expectations of a small present CO₂ ice cap. For “thick” models, with initial inventories ?5 bar, a surplus of 300-700 mbar of free CO₂ remains during the late-Noachian. The histories of free inventory in time for thick models tend to converge within the last 3.5 Gyr toward a present with an ice cap plus atmospheric inventory of about 100 mbar. For thick models, the convergence is largely due to the effects of chemical weathering, which draws down higher free inventories more rapidly than the low. Thus, thick models have ?450 mbar carbonate reservoirs, while thin models have ?200 mbar. Though both thick and thin scenarios can reproduce the current atmospheric pressure, the thick models imply a relatively large current CO₂ ice cap and thin models, little or none. While the sublimation of a massive cap at a high obliquity would create a climate swing of greenhouse warming for thick models, under the thin model, mean temperatures and pressures would be essentially unaffected by increases in obliquity.  相似文献   

Exact analysis of the combined data of SNO and Super-Kamiokande     

V. Berezinsky 《Astroparticle Physics》2002,17(4):575-514

Comparison of solar-neutrino signals in SNO [Phys. Rev. Lett. 87 (2001) 071301] and Super-Kamiokande (SK) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 86 (2001) 5651] detectors results in discovery of ν_e→ν_μ,τ oscillations at level 3.1–3.3σ [Phys. Rev. Lett. 87 (2001) 071301]. This comparison involves the assumption of neutrino spectrum and a choice for the thresholds of detection in both experiments. In this paper we obtain an exact formula for the comparison of the signals which is valid for arbitrary spectra and thresholds. We find that the no-oscillation hypothesis (astrophysical solutions) is excluded at 3.3σ. If the energy-dependent component of the survival probability for electron neutrinos is small as compared with the average value, i.e. in the case of small distortion of the observed spectrum, the oscillation hypothesis can also be tested to similar accuracy. The oscillation to sterile neutrino only, is excluded at 3.3σ level, and oscillation to active neutrinos is confirmed at 2.8σ.  相似文献   

Central regions of the early-type galaxies in the NGC 3169 group     

O. K. Sil’chenko  V. L. Afanasiev 《Astronomy Letters》2006,32(8):534-544

We have investigated the central regions of the galaxies in the NGC 3169/NGC 3166/NGC 3156 group with the multipupil fiber spectrograph of the 6-m telescope; the first (central) galaxy in the group is a spiral (Sa) one and the other two galaxies are lenticular ones. The group is known to have an extended HI cloud with a size of more than 100 kpc that is associated in its position, orientation, and rotation with the central galaxy NGC 3169. The mean age of the stellar populations in the centers of all three galaxies has been found to be approximately the same, ～1 Gyr. Since the galaxies are early-type ones and since NGC 3166 and NGC 3156 show no global star formation, we are dealing here with a synchronous star formation burst in the centers of all three galaxies.  相似文献   

Size-Flux Relation in Solar Active Regions     

O.V.Chumak 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2003,3(2):175-182

We present a study of the relationship between integral area and corresponding total magnetic flux for solar active regions. It is shown that some of these relationships are satisfied to simple power laws. Fractal examination showed that some of these power laws can not be justified inside the simple models of stationary magnetic flux tube aggregation. All magnetic fluxes and corresponding areas were calculated using the data measured with the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope of the Huairou Solar Observing Station in Beijing.  相似文献   

Merging of low-mass systems and the origin of the fundamental plane     

E.A. Evstigneeva  R.R. de Carvalho  A.L. Ribeiro  H.V. Capelato 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2003,284(2):487-490

We present the preliminary results of a study of how small stellar systems merge to form larger ones. As we display the families of galaxies in the μ_e - R_e plane (effective surface brightness versus effective radius) we realize that different morphological types occupy different loci, evidencing the different physical mechanisms operating in each family. As proposed by Capaccioli et al. (1992) this diagram is the logical equivalent of the HR diagram for stars. Here we take some initial steps in understanding of how we can establish the evolutionary tracks, solely due to dynamical processes, in the μ_e - R_e plane, ultimately making a dwarf elliptical to turn into a normal elliptical galaxy. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Stellar collisions in galactic centres: black hole growth and colour gradients     

Qingjuan Yu † 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,339(1):189-211

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